Bloomberg released polling results today for 504 likely voters in New Hampshire and Iowa illustrating, among other things, who they would choose for the Republican nominee for President. These two key early voting states play a significant role in the way the rest of the country plays out. After the initial round of primary elections, candidates will start to pull out and place support behind their favorites and causing an exodus of supporters to remaining candidates. What these two early polls indicate is that there would definitely not be a definitive winner after these two states vote. In Iowa, Herman Cain would win with 20% of the vote, with Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich all right behind him. However in New Hampshire, Romney pulls in 40% of the vote, Ron Paul taking 2nd place of only 17% and Newt Gingrich a lowly 11%.
So based on these results we can all but assume that barring some great revelation, Michelle Bachman (7% total for both states), Jon Huntsman (8% total), Rick Perry (10% total), and Rick Santorum (4% total) will be falling away after these initial rounds of primary elections. Based on pride and the way these candidates compose themselves I would imagine Bachman and Perry will remain in the race for a little while longer. While Bachman has disappeared in to the backdrop in recent debates, she is still the only real voice of the tea party and I think she will stay in as a sense of duty. Perry will stay in because he is Perry. I think he is still under the assumption he can win. Since people started speculating about him running, I always said that he does not have the national presence. Much like Huntsman, people at home may like these guys, but the rest of the country doesn't know who they are. And for many Morman humor is as foreign to them as Texan humor.
So after the first two primaries, I expect that Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman will bow out. Now the question will be, who will they back and where will their supporters go?
48% of likely voters in Iowa said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who has been married more than 3 times or has had extramarital affairs. This means less of those Santorum-Huntsman supporters in Iowa would change their vote to Gingrich. 58% of Iowans polled would vote against a candidate that supported any form of mandated healthcare, thus explaining Romney not doing well. This puts Ron Paul in a pretty good position. With Gingrich's multiple marriages, Cain's alleged sexual harassment/assault charges, and Romney's mandated state healthcare system in Massachusetts, Iowan voters are most likely to pull their support from Santorum-Huntsman and place it behind Paul.
43% of those polled in New Hampshire say they would not vote for a candidate accused of sexual harassment. 40% said they would not vote for a candidate who has been married more than 3 times or had affairs. 43% are against a candidate who wants a national sales tax. 46% are against a candidate who has supported mandated healthcare (interesting because Romney is currently killing in this state- that number probably means the rest of the state would vote against him). These stipulations once again put Paul in a strong position to gain some supporters here.
Put to a national vote right now, I would predict Romney would win the Republican nomination. While Ron Paul is currently in a better spot than he ever has before, his ideas are still to radical to win a majority vote, even against an unpopular sitting President. Romney has the most support, least mistakes, least skeletons in his closet and is center enough to even entice some Democrats but not far from the right where Republicans want to be right now. What will be the deciding factor in whether any of these candidates can beat President Obama, will be the ticket. Whoever the nominee is, he/she has to pick the perfect running mate to balance their strengths, support their weaknesses, and give the people the interesting mix of things they all demand now.
Who do you think will win and who do you think will drop out first?
(to view Bloomberg poll go to: www.businessweek.com/pdf/poll11-16-11.pdf)
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